Sunera Foundation

The Sri Lankan stock market bounced back strongly in early 2024. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped by 15%. This surge shows growing investor trust in the country’s economic stability.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) saw busy trading days. Daily turnover ranged from Rs. 3.3 billion to Rs. 5.3 billion. Nine straight positive sessions highlighted the market’s strong performance.

The blue-chip S&P SL20 index also grew, rising 2.41% to 2,794.15 points. Better-than-expected company earnings fueled this growth. The nation’s economy looks promising, with GDP growth predicted to hit 2-3% by year-end.

Offboard deals on specific stocks made up 15% of total turnover. These deals involved companies like Watawala Plantations and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. This shows strong investor interest in these firms.

The bull market proves Sri Lanka’s economic resilience. It’s attracting both local and foreign investors. As the rally continues, it’s expected to boost overall economic growth.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market has shown impressive growth in 2024’s first half. The All-Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped 15%, while the S&P 20 rose 19%. Lower inflation rates and interest rates have boosted investor confidence.

Inflation Eases and Interest Rates Decline, Boosting Investor Confidence

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the stock market’s recovery. Investors now feel more optimistic about listed companies’ future. Quarterly interest costs for core companies have dropped significantly since 2020.

Foreign Inflows Contribute to Market Rally

Foreign portfolio investment has driven the market rally. As the economy improves, foreign investors have become net buyers. Completing external debt restructuring is vital for market sentiment.

Sticking to the IMF reform program is crucial for sustained growth. Any deviation may create uncertainty and discourage foreign investor participation.

Key Sectors Like Capital Goods and Diversified Financials Lead the Surge

Capital Goods and Diversified Financials sectors are leading the market recovery. These companies have reported strong earnings growth and improved profitability. The banking sector is expected to see a re-rating.

Core earnings will be driven by loan growth amid positive GDP expectations. Non-Banking Financial Institutions should benefit from the current declining interest rate cycle.

Sector	Allocation
Banks/NBFI	30%
Conglomerates	25%
Manufacturing	20%
Consumer	15%
Leisure	10%

Increased trading volume and investor participation have supported market growth. Small to mid-cap companies may outperform large caps due to falling fixed-income yields. CSE earnings are expected to grow by 15.0% in 2024.

The ASPI target is set at 13,800 levels by year-end. The Sri Lankan stock market is ready for further growth and recovery.

Factors Driving the Bull Market

Sri Lanka’s stock market bull run stems from improved economic outlook and investor sentiment. Successful debt restructuring talks led to an IMF agreement for a $2.90 billion Extended Fund Facility. This boosted investor confidence, showing the government’s commitment to economic reforms.

Government reforms and the IMF program have stabilized the macroeconomic environment. Inflation dropped to about 35% in April 2023 from over 70%. Market-based pricing for fuel and cooking gas has aided the economic turnaround.

Sri Lanka has made progress in overcoming its economic crisis. The tourism sector’s rebound has been a key factor in 2023’s economic growth.

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates Spark Multiple Expansion for Equities

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the Sri Lankan stock market bull run. Inflation is expected to hit single digits by Q3 2023. This has made investors more optimistic about the country’s economic future.

Lower interest rates have led to higher stock prices. Investors are willing to pay more due to improved earnings visibility. The Sri Lankan Rupee gained about 10% in February 2023 alone.

Successful Debt Restructuring Negotiations Improve Economic Outlook

Debt restructuring talks have been a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economy. Foreign debt was 55% of total debt in early 2022. The IMF agreement and fiscal plans have greatly improved the economic outlook.

This has boosted various sectors, like Financial Services and Leisure. Maldivian Resorts and Colombo Hotels have performed well. The Group’s Bunkering business has seen higher profits from fuel prices and volumes.

Government Reforms and IMF Extended Fund Facility Program Support Recovery

Government reforms and the IMF program provide a strong base for Sri Lanka’s recovery. These measures address macroeconomic imbalances and set the stage for future growth. The Group reported 17% EBITDA growth to Rs.45.74 billion despite challenges.

The Supermarket business showed resilience with 45% EBITDA growth to Rs.7.46 billion. Ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline are expected to brighten economic prospects. This provides a solid foundation for the continuing bull market in Sri Lankan stocks.

The IMF has given Sri Lanka a $2.9 billion IMF bailout. This will help the country recover from its worst money crisis in 70 years. The approval allows for an initial release of about $337 million.

Sri Lanka’s economy shows signs of recovery under the IMF program. Yet, it remains at risk. Achieving debt stability is still a tough challenge.

The bailout is crucial for managing Sri Lanka’s financial crisis. It will also help implement economic reforms. The funds will be provided in stages over four years.

Sri Lanka aims to restructure its $83.6 billion debt. This includes $41.5 billion in foreign debt and $42 billion in domestic debt. The country plans talks with the Paris Club, India, and China before meeting private creditors.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Need for IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka faces its worst financial crisis in recent history. Foreign exchange reserves hit record lows in 2022, leading to a default on its external debt. The economy shrank by 7.8% last year, causing severe shortages of essential goods.

Factors Contributing to Sri Lanka’s Financial Collapse

Several factors led to Sri Lanka’s financial collapse. These include a drop in foreign exchange reserves and heavy reliance on imports. The COVID-19 pandemic also caused a sharp decline in tourism revenue.

Sri Lanka’s debt burden is a major concern. External debt will reach USD 37.5 billion by June 2024, as noted in debt restructuring talks. Government efforts to address the crisis have sparked social unrest.

Inflation soared above 70%, while the Sri Lankan rupee hit record lows. These factors worsened the country’s economic troubles.

Impact of the Crisis on Sri Lankan Citizens

The economic contraction and shortages have deeply affected Sri Lankan citizens. Many struggle to afford basic necessities. Rising costs have pushed more people into poverty.

The crisis has also led to widespread job losses and business closures. These factors have added to the hardships faced by the population.

Year	Economic Growth	Inflation
2022	-7.8%	70%
2023 (projected)	-3.0%	25%

Sri Lanka has turned to the IMF program for help. The government has made tough spending cuts and raised taxes. These actions aim to secure a bailout and set the stage for recovery.

IMF Approves $2.9 Billion Bailout to Stabilize Sri Lankan Economy

The IMF has approved a $2.9 billion bailout package for Sri Lanka. This aims to stabilize the nation’s economy during its worst financial crisis in decades. The 48-month loan program tackles pressing economic challenges like soaring inflation and currency depreciation.

Key Elements of the IMF Bailout Package

The bailout focuses on restoring fiscal sustainability and implementing tax reforms. It also aims to enhance social spending to protect vulnerable citizens. The program targets a fiscal surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2024.

This is a significant improvement from the projected 2022 deficit of 9.8%. The IMF stresses the importance of energy pricing reforms. It also emphasizes strengthening the central bank’s autonomy for data-driven monetary policy.

Conditions Attached to the IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka must secure financing assurances from major bilateral creditors like China, India, and Japan. This ensures debt restructuring and sustainability. The government has committed to implementing an anti-corruption legal framework.

They also aim to improve transparency in tax exemptions. These measures are crucial for restoring fiscal sustainability. They will also help attract private investments back into the country.

Expected Timeline for Disbursement of Funds

The IMF board approved the bailout on March 20. Sri Lanka is set to receive the first tranche of funds soon. As of June 2023, the IMF approved the second review of the bailout.

This brings the total funding to around $1 billion. Successful implementation of reforms could lead to additional funding. It may also attract support from international partners.

Key Economic Indicators	2022	2023 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-7.3%	-8.7%
Inflation Rate	70%	60%+
External Debt	$50 billion+	–

Reforms and Austerity Measures Required by the IMF

Sri Lanka must implement various fiscal reforms to secure the $2.9 billion IMF bailout approved in 2023. These measures aim to address the country’s economic crisis. In 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on $46 billion in foreign debt, causing shortages of essential goods.

Tax and Energy Pricing Reforms

The IMF requires raising taxes, such as increasing the value-added tax from 12% to 15%. The government must also reform energy pricing to align with market rates.

The goal is to boost revenue collection to 15% of GDP by 2025. Currently, it stands at 8%, among the lowest worldwide.

Efforts to Bolster Social Spending and Relief Programs

While implementing austerity measures, Sri Lanka must protect its most vulnerable citizens. The government needs to strengthen social spending and relief programs.

This is vital because the country’s poverty rate has doubled, according to the World Bank. Real wages remain significantly below pre-crisis levels.

Year	Inflation Rate	Debt-to-GDP Ratio
2022	60%	128%
2023	–	–
2028 (projected)	–	100%

Strengthening Anti-Corruption Legal Framework

Sri Lanka must bolster its anti-corruption legal framework to improve governance and transparency. This is crucial for effective implementation of IMF-mandated reforms.

Strengthening anti-corruption measures will help restore public trust in the government’s economic management abilities.

Conclusion

The IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout for Sri Lanka is a crucial step towards economic stability. This 48-month Extended Fund Facility aims to support Sri Lanka’s policies and reforms. It helps the nation recover from its worst financial crisis since independence.

The IMF assistance aims to restore financial stability and promote sustainable growth. It also protects vulnerable citizens. Success depends on effective reforms, international support, and political stability.

Sri Lanka has made progress, with inflation decreasing from 70% to below 2%. Gross international reserves have increased by $1.5 billion. However, revenue gains are falling short of initial projections by almost 15%.

Sustained efforts are needed to meet the IMF’s bailout terms. These include a ban on printing money and specific revenue targets. Sri Lanka must finalize its $41 billion external debt restructuring by mid-September.

The nation must stay committed to reform and sustainable growth. With international support and dedication, Sri Lanka can overcome challenges. This will help build a brighter future for its citizens.